By: Seth McLaughlin

The general-election campaign unofficially kicked off Tuesday with Mitt Romney continuing to sharpen his criticism of President Obama, saying a second term for the incumbent would be dangerous because he is not being upfront about the policies he plans to pursue.

The Romney line of attack echoes that of Wayne LaPierre, executive vice president of the National Rifle Association, who has warned his group’s supporters that the president is trying to lull them into complacency and then would use a second term to “destroy the Second Amendment.”

Republican concerns about a second term were exacerbated by an exchange Mr. Obama had last month when he told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev — in a conversation caught on an open microphone — that he will “have more flexibility” after the 2012 election to work on issues such as missile defense…

…Democrats counter that Mr. Obama has fulfilled campaign promises to end the war in Iraq, halt the nation’s financial meltdown and get the economy running again.

Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist and senior director at Quinn Gillespie & Associates, offered a short rebuttal: “He killed [Osama] bin Laden — enough said.”

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While an anti-Obama and anti-Democratic wave that swept the nation during the 2010 mid-term elections led Republicans to take control of the House of Representatives, turnout among Republicans appears to be more muted this year.

According to CBS News estimates, 2012 voter turnout is about 6 percent lower compared to the same contests in 2008. On a state-by-state basis, the 9.2 million votes so far in this primary is fewer than the 9.79 million in 2008.

Though some states have seen bumps in turnout from 2008 — including the first three states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — voting has been down in several subsequent states compared to 2008.

Of course, some special factors could explain lower turnout: In Virginia, only two of the four candidates were on the ballot; Missouri was just a non-binding ”beauty contest” primary; And Idaho held caucuses instead of a primary this year. On the flip side, Sen. John McCain had clinched the nomination by the time Mississippi and Alabama voted in 2008, and the longer-than-expected primary season this year likely led to increased voter participation in last Tuesday’s contests — and could lead to increased turnout in the states to come.

Despite the special circumstances, turnout has been down overall…

However, former Democratic spokesman Jim Manley, now a senior director of the Washington, D.C. firm QGA Public Affairs, said Democrats are feeling more optimistic than they were six months ago when the economy was showing no signs of recovery and anticipation over the Republican field was high. He pointed to the improving economy and the prolonged, bitter Republican primary as signs of trouble for the GOP.

“There’s a whole heck of a lot of Democrats feeling a lot better these days,” he said.

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Washington, D.C., was dazzled this week by a VIP. He visited the White and got the prized seat next to the first lady at this week’s state dinner.

No, we’re not talking about British Prime Minister David Cameron, though he was in town also.

It was actor and activist George Clooney, in town to raise awareness about the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. In addition to getting arrested for protesting in front of the Sudanese embassy, Clooney also testified before a congressional panel …

Jim Manley has worked on Capitol Hill for more than 20 years for Ted Kennedy, as well as George Mitchell and Harry Reid. He says the celebrities who come through town are almost always sincere and passionate about their causes, but:

“Beautiful though she may be, Angelina Jolie coming through town? Already seen that a couple of times before,” he says.

Manley says as celebrities have gotten more and more involved in politics on the Hill, their impact has waned since the days of Liz Taylor.

In other words, star-powered awareness of worthy causes is becoming as fleeting as fame itself.

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Democrats on K Street are warning their corporate clients: Give to Republican challengers in the 2012 election, and you’ll regret it come tax reform time.

Lobbyists are getting that message from allies of powerful Democrats such as Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who is closely watching support for Rep. Denny Rehberg, a Republican challenging Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.). Baucus supporters fear that if Rehberg ousts Tester, Baucus could be next to face a serious Republican challenge in the state.

One K-Streeter close to the Baucus operation said the senator considers a gift to Rehberg a contribution against him. Another Democratic lobbyist told a client to take his name off a Rehberg fundraising event because it would be hurtful to his company, according to sources.

The case K-Streeters are making to their clients: It will be a hard sell next year to get Baucus’s support on business-friendly tax perks set to expire or the Bush-era tax cuts that must get through his committee…

Quinn Gillespie & Associates’ Jim Manley, a former senior aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, said downtowners have long used these strategies.

“As far as I can tell, this is nothing more or less than what Republicans have been doing for years,” Manley said. “Democrats are just taking a page out of the Republican playbook for how to operate on K Street.”
It’s not just K-Streeters getting in on the act. Reid has also been vocal at his weekly breakfast fundraisers — telling attendees that it’s important for Democrats to maintain the majority and support all of the Democratic candidates and take a broad view in political giving, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

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From the weak candidates to the elongated calendar, everybody has a different theory for why the Republican presidential contest is taking so long.

The race for the Republican presidential nomination was supposed to be over by now. And yet, somehow, it isn’t. If anything, as Michigan and Arizona prepare to weigh in with their primaries Tuesday, things seem more up in the air than ever.

Two candidates, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, have each won four states apiece; another, Newt Gingrich, has won just South Carolina but swears he’s staying in all the way to the convention; and a fourth, Ron Paul, hasn’t won a single contest, but seems to live in a parallel political universe where losing primaries is no obstacle to eventual victory. The latest polls put Romney just a hair ahead of Santorum in Tuesday’s Michigan primary, but Santorum has tended to outperform polls on Election Day, and can credibly argue that even a close loss in Romney’s native state is a major blow to the former Massachusetts governor. Then next week it’s on to Super Tuesday, where 10 diverse states, from Ohio to Oklahoma to Idaho, present a new wide-open landscape.

Analyses seeking to explain the still-unsettled nature of the contest have hit on various factors as the supposed explanation, but no single cause seems to explain it. Here are a few of the causes we’ve seen cited — and why they fall short…

2. It’s the voters. They’re so right-wing, so obsessed with ideological purity and determined to thwart the Washington establishment, whatever that is, that they can’t reach consensus. In these days of Tea Party ferment and directionless anger, voters are impossible to satisfy; what’s more, they’re so consumed with antagonism for absolutely everything that it’s impossible for them to make a positive choice. The sort of purity-over-electability attitude that in 2010 led to the Senate nominations of candidates like Christine O’Donnell and Sharron Angle is at war with rank-and-file Republicans’ desire for orderliness. If these too-picky suitors would just settle for Mr. Right Now, this argument goes, we would have a nominee by now.

“The chaos in the race reflects the convulsions that are still roiling the Republican Party,” said John Feehery, a GOP consultant and former congressional aide. “The consensus of what the GOP stands for has broken down post-Bush.” In Reagan’s day, the “three-legged stool” of economic, social and national-security conservatism was mutually reinforcing, but these days those three strands are more likely to see themselves as competing in a zero-sum struggle for the heart of the party. Meanwhile, a relentlessly negative campaign is extremely skilled at convincing people what they can’t accept — leaving them no positive alternative.

What’s wrong with this theory: The Republican Party was arguably no less chaotic four years ago, neatly split between an economic conservative (Romney), a social conservative (Mike Huckabee) and a national-security conservative (John McCain), yet it didn’t take too long for all the strains to congeal behind McCain: By this time in 2008, Romney had been out of the race for three weeks and McCain was the presumptive nominee.

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Quinn Gillespie & Associates‘s Democrats and Republicans were on the fundraising scene Wednesday night. QGA’s Democratic brethren, led by Jack Quinn co-hosted, along with AT&T and law firm Wiley Rein, a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee fundraiser at Bistro Bis. The event —which featured DSCC Chairwoman Patty Murray of Washington and Sens. Chuck Schumer of New York, Daniel Inouye of Hawaii, John Kerry of Massachusetts, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Jon Tester of Montana, Tom Udall of New Mexico, and two candidates for Senate, Reps. Shelley Berkley of Nevada and Chris Murphy of Connecticut — raised nearly $400,000. Meanwhile, QGA Republican Marc Lampkin co-hosted a fundraiser with Melissa Khan of Metlife for Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio). The event is expected to raise more than $125,000.

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Although there is much talk among political observers about the possibility of a brokered GOP convention in Tampa, Republican National Committee Communications Director Sean Spicer is not buying it.

“The last time we had a brokered convention was in the 1940’s, and we’re four contests in that have awarded delegates,” Mr. Spicer told me on Wednesday.  ”We are four weeks and four states into a process. I get that it’s the buzz, but I literally spend as much time worrying if some space alien attack happens.”

A brokered convention will happen if a candidate does not win enough delegates during the primary and caucus period to attain a pre-established majority during the first official ballot at the nominating convention. The last Republican brokered convention nominee was Thomas Dewey in 1948. However, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, a Democrat, was the last brokered convention nominee to win the presidency in 1932…

…Marc Lampkin of the DC based QGA public affairs told me on Tuesday, ”It becomes difficult for the candidate as the candidate to build an infrastructure. Most likely, it would mean they would have to take matching money which would probably put them at a huge disadvantage against Obama.”

Mr. Lampkin served as senior deputy campaign manager on the Bush-Cheney 2000 campaign and a political operative at the 2000 Republican Convention.

“There’s a huge disadvantage if you don’t get the keys to the kingdom. You get your money and your limited only in that in that amount of money it takes to you get from matching funds.”

Lampkin, though, does point out that the Republican National Committee (RNC) is already working on a 50 state presidential election plan in terms of  ”building voter ID and identification activities.” Whoever is the GOP nominee, brokered convention or not, will already have the RNC’s built up infrastructure there for them.

“The legacy of the Michael Steele tenure means (the RNC) is a little bit in the hole, but I think that Reince Priebus has been doing a pretty good job in building out the infrastructure. That stuff you can do with non-presidential money,” said Lampkin.

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Those are the presidential campaign strategies becoming clear as fundraising efforts and spending plans shine some light on how the Republican race will play out through February and on to a showdown on Super Tuesday on March 6 when 10 states vote…

Gingrich, who represented Georgia for years in the U.S. House of Representatives, had been deemed a favorite in his home territory but Santorum’s strong emergence is turning up the heat.

“Both Newt and Santorum assume that Mitt is not going to do well in Old Dixie and they’re both trying to compete there,” said Republican strategist John Feehery.

“Romney needs those states to get some mojo going,” Feehery said. “He’s got to stop the momentum going the other way.”

Romney is by far the best fundraiser of the four Republican candidates, although he still falls short of the campaign war chest being built up by Obama.

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“Florida, you’re the best!” Romney shouted at the close of his victory speech.

Romney— on the rebound following a thumping in South Carolina from rival Newt Gingrich — has 47 percent of the vote with 99 percent of the polls reporting. He was declared the winner about 20 minutes after the polls closed tonight.

Gingrich is second with 32 percent, Rick Santorum has 13 percent and Ron Paul 7 percent.

With a win tonight Romney is likely to be the Republican nominee, said Washington D.C.-based Republican consultant John Feehery.

“Barring some huge upset, Romney will probably get the nomination,” said Feehery. “This is taking on the qualities of a wrestling federation match, where you know who’s going to win but you don’t know what will happen in between.”

The Gingrich campaign has already said they are in the race to the bitter end…

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The topic is sparking questions about what happened 15 years ago, why House Republicans wanted Gingrich ousted, why so few support him now and what role Rep. John Boehner, now Speaker, played in the botched attempt.

The story of the secret plot, first reported by The Hill’s Sandy Hume, rocked Washington. And although Gingrich survived in 1997, he was politically maimed, resigning in 1998 after Republicans lost seats in the midterm elections. Boehner (R-Ohio) was also removed from his No. 4 leadership post.

For this article, The Hill interviewed Republican lawmakers and aides who served in the House during that tumultuous time…

…What is clear is that there was unrest in the GOP conference. Coming off President Clinton’s successful 1996 reelection, the mishandling of a federal government shutdown and Gingrich’s continuing ethics and media flaps, many Republicans were frustrated with the Speaker that summer.

“All of those things really exhausted people,” said John Feehery, a partner at Quinn Gillespie & Associates, who is neutral in the GOP presidential primary. “People were just sick and tired of his leadership.”

Feehery, also a columnist for The Hill, was DeLay’s communications director at the time.

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